Lecture 13

A Martian base - is this in our future, or too expensive, or is it just a foolish daydream? (NASA image by Pat Rawlings)

Where do we go from here?

What is our future in space? Do we even have a future "up there"? Space is expensive - will we continue to pay for it? Should future exploration be purely robotic? Or is space the solution to the long-term survival of our civilization?

The Cost of Space

Just how expensive is space anyway? The U.S. federal budget proposal (President's budget request) for 2015 has estimated spending of 3.9 trillion dollars. A trillion is a million million, or a thousand billion - that's a lot of money. Of that 3.9 trillion, NASA's 2015 budget proposal (President's budget request) is 17.7 billion dollars, or half of one percent. Completely eliminating NASA would make no difference to The United States' budgetary problems. The rest of the world put together spends about the same as NASA.
Space Agency budgets
current NASA budget

The Space Exploration Initiative of 1989

The first President Bush proposed a long term space exploration program involving expeditions to Mars and bases on the Moon. This 'Space Exploration Initiative' was estimated (especially by its critics) to cost over $500 billion (spread over many years). It was never popular and was soon abandoned.
The Space Exploration Initiative

The new 'Vision for Space Exploration'

In January 2004 President G. W. Bush announced a new direction for NASA. Presidents Kennedy, Nixon and Reagan had initiated the Apollo, Shuttle and Space Station programs respectively. Many critics have complained that the Shuttle and Station are only engineering projects lacking any visionary goal of exploration. After the Columbia accident, the idea arose that lives should mainly be risked in space for visionary goals like exploration, not routine operations like the Space Station. Bush directed that the Station be completed, then the Shuttle retired, and that future NASA goals should involve a return to the Moon and preparation for expeditions to Mars. The project had strong supporters and many detractors. The cost was supposed to be held to a reasonable level by waiting until the Shuttle and Station were finished, then using their budgets for the new project. That implied a long gap in human spaceflight from the US. Some people wanted to leave the Moon out of the new plan and focus on Mars. Another idea was that the hardware which would take people to the Moon could also take them to near-Earth asteroids. A 90 to 180 day round trip to an asteroid with a few days of surface operations could take place as early as 2025.
The Vision for Space Exploration
Human Mars exploration (MS Word file)
Recent human Mars exploration meeting
Human asteroid missions?
Paul Spudis presentation (PDF file)

Implementing the Vision

NASA developed plans to accomplish the new Vision, calling the new plan Constellation. A new family of rockets (Ares) would be built using parts of the Space Shuttle system. A new capsule (Orion) would be able to fly six people to the Station, or four to the Moon. A big new lunar lander, Altair, would be designed. Some landings, called Sorties, would go to scientifically interesting places anywhere on the Moon, but most of the initial effort would go into building a base at one of the poles, probably the South Pole. A big effort was made to speed up the early flights of Orion, to reduce the gap in US human space flight. Despite all the planning, Congress never put enough money in the budget to make the full vision happen.
Constellation documents
Constellation

Replacing the Vision

It became clear that the US Congress would not fund Constellation at the level needed for success. What could be done with the level of budget actually likely to be available? If a new rocket could launch Orion, could it do anything without all the expensive landers and outpost hardware? Asteroid missions, and even trips to the moons of Mars, would be possible. In 2010 President Obama redirected funding to develop a better rocket than Ares and to plan for asteroid missions in the 2020s and 2030s. The Moon was dropped as a destination: "We've been there and done that." One difficulty soon arose - the only asteroids in suitable orbits were the size of a house rather than several km across, and appeared less interesting. And they still took many months to reach. By 2013 another idea was emerging - capture one of these little things robotically and move it into orbit around the Moon. Now the Moon has a moon, and people can study it, analyze it, bring bits back to Earth for study, and learn to operate on a tiny world but very close to home. The current preference is to capture a large boulder from the surface of a small asteroid similar to Itokawa and bring it back, placing it in a high altitude retrograde orbit of the Moon. Retrograde means that this little asteroid would move in the opposite direction to the Moon in its orbit around Earth.
Asteroid mission
Phobos mission
Stepping Stones (Youtube video)
Asteroid Retrieval Initiative (PDF file)

The next administration - what can we expect?

In November 2016 a new administration was elected in the United States. What are its priorities? What will it do, or not do, in space? It is too early to say, but below are links to two items which might point the way. President Trump takes office in January 2017 and it may be many months before changes in space policy start to take shape.
Trump campaign position on space
Bridenstein presentation

Global Exploration Roadmap

Space exploration costs might be reduced by sharing them around the world. If NASA provided rockets and the Orion capsule, ESA provided a lunar lander, Canada provided pressurized rovers for use on the Moon, Russia provided habitat modules, Japan provided solar power systems... and so on... a global exploration plan with a lunar base might be possible within available budgets. Space agencies are discussing plans like these now, but nothing has yet been decided. Generally speaking everyone else is much more interested in the Moon than the US is.
Global Exploration Roadmap (PDF file)
Roadmap website

Space Elevators?

Exotic new technologies might make space travel cheap and easy, but we are still a long way from being able to use them. The Space Elevator is an example. A long, very tough ribbon reaches from the ground up into space, attached to a counterweight beyond Geostationary Orbit. Cars ride up and down it, powered by solar-generated electricity. It might be possible in the distant future, but now it challenges our abilities to produce ultra-strong cables and to protect them from impacts and other hazards. You don't want to be half way up a space elevator when a piece of orbital debris or a meteoroid breaks it just above you. Space elevator access to and from the Moon or Mars would be much more feasible than a space elevator to and from Earth, because of their lower gravity.
the Space Elevator concept
the Space Elevator

Other US studies

There have been many other US studies over the years. See the links below for disparate current and past thoughts about our future in space. There are many different ideas about what should happen in space and who should do it.
Mars Direct
Pioneering the Space Frontier
Several different ideas

The Private Sector?

Do we have to rely on NASA for the future of space exploration? Many businesses are trying to break into space exploration on their own (see Lecture 8). Will they take us where NASA will not? But raising money is very difficult. Until one company can succeed and show that it is possible to make money in space, investment is likely to remain difficult to find. Golden Spike, Inspiration Mars, Mars One - they are all examples of this, and we don't know if any will succeed. Space-X founder Elon Musk has talked of plans to fly his rockets and spacecraft to Mars, and eventually to colonize the planet. Follow the Chapter 8 links for more background.
Colonizing Mars

Other nations?

Space is no longer just the playground of the superpowers, as it was (or could have been said to be) in the 1960s. China has launched its first astronauts and has started its space station and lunar robotic missions. India has flown a lunar orbiting mission, is planning a rover and is beginning to discuss an astronaut program. Both nations have successful home-built launchers and satellite industries. Japan has a longer history of satellite launching and planetary probes, but has suffered recent setbacks. Brazil has a satellite launcher development program but was delayed by a serious launch site accident. Many other nations have had satellites launched for them, or flown experiments on Russian or American spacecraft, or even flown their own astronauts on Russian or American spacecraft. The reasons for these actions are mixed, including national prestige, inspiration for youth, and a demonstration of technological ability. But small space budgets will inevitably limit what can be achieved in all these countries.
China's Space Agency
Russia's Space Agency
European Space Agency
Indian space agency
Japanese Space Agency
South Korean Space Agency
Italian Space Agency
British Space Agency
French Space Agency
German Space Agency
Brazil's Space Agency
Mexico's Space Agency
(could add many more...)

My guess

I don't think space will be abandoned - we find new things to do there all the time. I also find it very difficult to believe that the private sector will take over completely, though it may play an increasing role. I expect that governments will play the leading role in space exploration and exploitation for a long time. In exploration, we will see many more planetary robotic probes, and I am fairly sure we will see people back on the Moon in 12 to 15 years - I think the decision to abandon the Moon will be reversed. Mars will be much more difficult to reach than many people appreciate, so I expect progress towards sending people there will be slow, but it will probably happen. Meanwhile, I do expect non-traditional activities in space to grow, maybe quite rapidly. The idea of a trip to orbit as a prize in a lottery or a reality TV show has been discussed for years. Commercial robotic trips to the moon, with a saleable product (moon soil, burials, science data, entertainment 'content', etc.) are being worked on now. Once a few of these things happen, as I think they will, a watershed will be crossed in terms of credibility. Then, and I think only then, will we see the investment flow and things will literally 'take off'. To the Moon!!!

A Martian base - is this in our future, or too expensive, or is it just a foolish daydream? (NASA image by Pat Rawlings)